My Theory about Hurricane Parties

2:30 p.m.

Ike

27.4N  93.1W

winds 105 mph, gusts 125 mph

165 miles from Galveston

Traveling WNW at 12 mph

Portland’s latitude is 27.8N, so Ike is almost due east of us right now.  I’d show you a picture of due east from here, but the camera batteries are charging.  Later perhaps.  

This location is good news for us.  

Because Ike is such a big monster, it’s unlikely to be able to dramatically change the direction in which it is moving, so there is almost no chance now of a direct hit from the eye.  The National Hurricane Center has been forecasting a “turn to the north” for Ike for the past 18 hours.  That turn has not yet happened, but they still think it’s going to happen.  If it does not turn, Ike could slam into Matagorda Bay, about 80 miles up the coast from us.  It seems to me though, that a hit near East Matagorda Bay, another several dozen miles up the coast from here, might be the best spot in terms of overall protection of life and property.  In other words, hitting Matagorda Bay, misses Galveston/Houston.  Though the storm surge is such that even without a direct hit right now, the water is going to destroy a lot of property and put a lot of people in danger.  The storm surge from Ike is already battering Galveston, and landfall won’t occur (at any location) for at least 8-10 more hours.  

Things have been very quiet for us around here today.  Fewer people have been out chatting.  Everyone is tired.  I would guess that about a quarter of our town has evacuated, though I think a few people have returned.  The rest of us are just exhaling and being thankful that we are no longer the target.  

Which brings me to the subject of the notorious Hurricane Party.  We hear a lot in the lead-up to a storm about how hurricane parties are bad ideas, generally irresponsible.  

A part of me believes that if a bunch of people band together to share supplies and look out for each other in the face of a big storm, that’s a great idea.  Especially if someone with a sound structure can play host.  As long as everyone has done all of the crucial preparation to protect life and property, as opposed to simply amassing chips and alcohol.  

Speaking from our experience this week, the intense preparations and waiting, the indecision, the stress builds up, and now that we are out of the main danger, all of that pent up energy feels like it needs to be dissipated.  It only makes sense to me that spontaneous hurricane parties might arise in areas that have been missed by the storm as everyone is left sitting around with no wind to fight.  

Related to the hurricane party is the “Hurrication.”  A hurrication might occur when one has made all the necessary hurricane preparations leading up to a possible evacuation, and though no evacuation becomes necessary, they go out of town anyway.  You know, the camper’s packed and we’re ready to barbecue, so we might as well go away for the weekend.  Which seems like another good way to let off all that steam that has built up ahead of the storm.  

Right now, it’s hot (heat index at 103F/39C) and we have a light steady breeze (5 mph/8 km/h), as well as rum and coke.  And root beer for the little people.  And ice cream and chips.  Not that we’re having a hurricane party.  No.  That would be irresponsible.  Maybe.