Shelter in Place

The first tendrils of Ike.

Portland, Texas

Friday 9:30 a.m.

Ike

26.9N  92.2W

Winds 105 mph

Gusts 125 mph

230 miles from Galveston

Moving WNW at 13 mph

Our new plan:  shelter in place.  The storm is currently expected to make one more turn to the north and make a direct hit on Galveston and Houston.  If it does not turn, it will make landfall between Port Lavaca and Freeport.  All of these towns are up the coast from us, leaving us on the dryer side of the storm by more than 100 miles.  

We will shut ourselves in this evening, boarding the last window and bracing the garage door.  Just in case.  The storm is expected to make landfall around 1:00 a.m.  Fifteen hours or so.  

Right now, it’s beautiful.  The air feels cool (82F/2C) and there is a light breeze from the northeast.  Those wisps of cloud are the first tendrils of Ike sweeping across our sky.  This storm is huge, spanning more than forty percent of the Gulf of Mexico.  It is still a Category 2 storm, but is expected to intensify suddenly to a Category 3 just before landfall.  

Here’s what scares me.  Galveston has (intelligently) ordered an evacuation.  Houston has not followed.  Take a look at this map of the hurricane.  Now, zoom in on the landfall point.  The bumps in the blue water are an ocean shelf that allows a huge amount of water to build up suddenly.  When that water is being pushed from behind by a titanic freight train, the only place for it to go is right up the shelf onto the land.  Right into that big bay and to the densely populated urban area around and beyond it.  The seawall at Galveston is 17 feet.  People beyond Galveston in low-lying areas have been evacuated.  But the bulk of Houston’s population is not being evacuated.  

I fear what will happen if the eye of the storm comes ashore southwest of Galveston, with the strongest part of the storm and its surge just to the right of the eye.  I equally fear what would happen if Houston told everyone to leave right now.  At least 118 people died in the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005.  Perhaps city officials waited too long on this one, and feared that an evacuation order now would create that same kind of chaos again.    

Perhaps a donation to the Red Cross would not be out of order just now.  

Comments

[drythe]

Jesus. I just called C. to see if she'd heard from you, not thinking "hmmm, perhaps I could read her blog - or even personally call her personally"! I'm glad to hear you guys have taken extra precautions and will send you, Partner, and the Sonars cosmic prayers.

Love,
Drythe